By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor
OMAHA (DTN) -- Private analytical firm Informa Economics estimates that farmers will produce 13.56 billion bushels of corn with a national average yield of 168.4 bushels per acre.
That's 24 million bushels lower than USDA's September estimate. The average yield is 0.9 bpa higher.
"The new estimate expects the planted corn area to come down 493,000 acres to 88.4 million," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said. "Yield is expected to rise from 167.5 to 168.4 bushels an acre. Informa's estimate is likely close to what many are already thinking and, if true, should not have a significant impact on corn prices when USDA's numbers are released on Oct. 9."
Informa sees soybean production coming in 57 mb higher than USDA at 3.88 bb with a national average yield of 47.2 bpa, which is up 0.1 bpa even though Informa made adjustments to yield estimates in 10 states.
"Informa's estimate, if true, would still provide bearish pressure to soybean prices, but I am concerned that USDA's numbers will be more bearish than Informa suspects as anecdotal harvest reports are leaning toward higher yields," Hultman said.
USDA will release its next Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates at 11 a.m. CDT on Oct. 9. The Crop Production report will incorporate Farm Services Agency data on acreage, which Informa believes will lead to a 1.4-million-acre decline in soybean planted acres.
USDA's WASDE report will also incorporate ending stocks data from the quarterly Grain Stocks report, including revised 2014 soybean production data. Analysts expect USDA will make some changes to the demand side of the balance sheet.
Informa also released its world crop report, which showed expanding soybean production in Brazil.
"Informa estimates Brazil will produce 81 mmt of corn and 100 mmt of soybeans in 2015, both higher than USDA's current estimates," Hultman said. "However, it is too early to take any estimates too seriously for South America yet so price impact is muted."
Brazilian farmers are likely to increase planted area by 4.4% to 33.5 million hectares, according to Informa's survey of planting intentions conducted in late-September.
"Informa's estimate of Ukraine's corn production at 24.5 mmt is less than USDA's current estimate of 27.0 mmt and is one bullish possibility to watch for next Friday," Hultman said.
Katie Micik can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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